The classic Roman arch is one of the great marvels of engineering. The weight of the entire wall is held in place by one single thing…the keystone. When this critical stone is removed, the entire thing collapses. So it is with the MotoGP silly season and that keystone is, of course, Valentino Rossi.

Rossi is at the end of a two year contract with Yamaha. Unless things change drastically, he will win a second title for the Japanese manufacturer this year taking them from bust to boom as they went over ten years without a premier class title and now have two in a row thanks to the young Italian. He is the most talented rider in MotoGP and probably the most talented ever. No factory will dare fill up their factory seats until it is clear who will have Rossi’s services next year. Thus the entirety of silly season (and the lucrative factory contracts involved) are on hold with all eyes firmly fixed on the #46.

The front runner to collect the signature on their contract has to be Yamha. Rossi, along with his crew, have turned the lackluster M1 into an excellent machine. It is still down on power compared to the Honda and Ducati but its handling is probably the best in the paddock. Throw in Rossi’s magic on the bike and its an unbeatable combination. When you look at the rest of the Yamaha riders, including teammate Colin Edwards, it becomes clear that the bike isn’t yet perfect. Clearly, both Rossi and Burgess enjoy thumbing their nose at ex-employer Honda and Yamaha gives them the budget and technical expertise to continue doing so. Switching to any other brand makes their job that much more difficult. If Yamaha does retain the services of Rossi for another year or two, they don’t need to make many changes. If, as claimed, Rossi and Edwards run similar setups then they need to keep the Texan on the payroll. Not because Colin can win but because he is the ultimate development rider which will be particularly valuable if he’s developing for Rossi. However, it is finally time to pull the plug on the Xaus experience. Just be aware that Sharkskinz stock is going to crash when that happens…

A distant second is the scenario of a return to Honda. This is definitely a case of Big Red needing Rossi more than Rossi needs them. But if there is one thing that Honda has, its money. Lots and lots of money. In an ideal world that wouldn’t play a part but I’m sure even Rossi would have a hard time turning down a disgustingly large offer, should it be made. But Honda has something else and its something no one else in the paddock can offer…a Formula One ride. Rossi is constantly flirting with the cage racing crowd. He has raced (and crashed) in World Rally and has tested both Honda and Ferrari Formula One cars. If there is one place that needs Rossi’s flamboyant personality more than the MotoGP series, its Formula One. (The organizers of both series desperately want him so don’t be surprised to see some political pressure and perhaps even extra money from folks like Dorna to enter into negotiations). If Honda could offer a MotoGP ride with a transition into Formula One, it would be difficult for any other motorcycle factory to match that. Then again, Honda could put him straight into F-1 next year and open the door for a Biaggi, Gibernau, Melandri, Hayden battle in 2006… If Honda does put Rossi back on a RC211V next year, they should immediately fire every rider that is over the age of 25. Keep Melandri and Hayden, bring in Pedrosa and Dovisioso, and have them all learn from the master. Send Barros, Bayliss, Biaggi, Gibernau and Tamada packing. Win now with Rossi and plan for the future with the young whipper-snappers.

The dream situation for most fans would be for Rossi to again do the unexpected and jump ship completely from the Japanese to join Ducati. The idea of an Italian winning the MotoGP championship on an Italian bike would harken back to the hallowed days of Giacomo Agostini winning aboard the MV Agusta. This pairing would add so much excitement to the series that I’m not sure the country of Italy could handle the pressure. The whole damned place might erupt into a combination delirious party and full fledged riot. Another side effect of this would be the breaking of the current “dream team” of Loris Capirossi and Ducati. If Rossi comes into the pit, you can be sure that the current “A” rider would leave. Given the way Rossi has shown up both Checa and Edwards, its possible even the “B” rider (currently Checa) would leave. If there is a hot seat anywhere in the pits, its being teammate to Vale! If the #46 was put on a Duck, the first thing the Bologna engineers need to learn from Burgess is that horsepower alone doesn’t win races. Let ‘em learn from Rossi how to make the Desmosedici handle. Either promote Toseland or Lanzi from WSBK to team with him while they are still young enough to learn how to handle the big power of the MotoGP bikes.

A persistent rumor is that Ferrari wants Rossi to come race for them in Formula One. This is basically the same as the Ducati rumor but on four wheels instead of two. While Rossi’s flamboyant personality would certainly give a boost to the somber atmosphere in the car paddock this does seem like a bit of a stretch. Rossi’s test times in the Ferrari were good but the difference between first and last in any world championship is often measured in mere seconds. The skill required to go from three seconds off the pace to winning races is huge. Rossi seemed good in his F-1 tests but is he great? Is Ferrari willing to put an unproven driver in the seat of one of their cars, even the costs of running the series for a year?

Let me throw out two unlikely but really fascinating possibilities for you to ponder:

First, the ultimate underdog situation. This would be Rossi leaving Yamaha to go to a team that is really struggling like Suzuki, or better yet, Team Roberts. This is unlikely for many different reasons: First, those companies could never afford the price tag of the Rossi Wrecking Crew. Second, it would be such a huge gamble for Rossi that he would have much more to loose than gain. Finally, its unlikely that Team Roberts team will even be around next year and its not hard to imagine MotoGP getting so expensive that Suzuki scraps its program as well. Still, wouldn’t it be amazing to see if Rossi could turn a complete pile into a competitive bike? If nothing else, it would be great for the series to have yet another brand running up front. If either company could get the Doctor on board they first should go immediately to their nearest temple, shrine or mosque and give thanks. In fact, they should probably go to all three! Then they should just do whatever he says, even if its to trash their current bike and lease a Honda or Yamaha.

The second test of your imagination would be to imagine Rossi going after another seemingly unassailable record: That of winning two championships in the same year like Freddie Spencer did in 1985. Honda currently has competitive bikes in both MotoGP and 250GP. With Dani Pedrosa rumored to be moving up to MotoGP next year, the factory 250 has an open seat. Rossi could probably win the ‘06 MotoGP series aboard a RC211V and at the same time mop up the 250GP class aboard a RSW250. Of course, Honda wouldn’t really get anything extra out of this since having Rossi just on their MotoGP would be all the marketing really needed. What’s more, Spencer basically ended his career by wrecking his body running both classes in ‘85 so again Rossi has more to lose than gain. Still, it would be my personal dream scenario since I’d love to see someone racing and winning both classes simultaneously.

No matter what Rossi ends up doing next year, you can be sure that all the other cards in the MotoGP deck won’t be shuffled until its decided. Silly season won’t start until the private negotiations for Rossi come to an end.

[image from the Yahoo UK Sports web site.]