Silly season for the AMA isn’t really as silly as in season’s past, with one huge exception, because of the small number of factory teams in Superbike and the confusion of the different classes.

• First, Suzuki, the champion yet again in 2004:



1a) Mat Mladin - What, really, needs to be said about Mladin at this point. He’s made everyone in the superbike class, except Nicky Hayden, look like chumps for the past six years. He’s an animal and I figure its likely he’ll continue to win AMA championships until he retires. I’d gripe about MotoGP seats, riders who buy rides with sponsorship dollars and other things, except that its a sad tale that’s been told again and again. I predict Mladin will have another #1 at the end of this coming season.

1b) Aaron Yates - After being a big fan since his Suzuki Cup days, last year was the last straw. I will say Double A Ron better start the ‘05 season better than last year because he didn’t look like a championship rider after his Daytona fisty-cuffs. I think 2004 took a lot of the wind from his sails and I don’t think he’ll make a big enough jump back forward in 2005 to win the thing.

1c) Ben Spies - Whatever money Suzuki isn’t already paying to Mladin to keep him around, they better be giving to Spies. For that matter, the AMA should be paying him too. He’s got bucket loads of talent and a tremendous dedication to racing. I think he’s the best thing the AMA has on the horizon. I think he has everything needed to fight for a championship in 2005 and may be the biggest threat to Mladin.

• Second, Honda, with a returning lineup:

1a) Miguel Duhamel - At the beginning of 2004, I’d have forecast that Duhamel was being kept around by Honda for his marketability…then he shows me up by having one of his strongest years. I’m not sure he’ll be willing to push that extra little bit needed to race with the young bucks or to keep up with Mladin, though. Miguel has so many war wounds, his body probably aches when going around half the corners on the AMA circuit. Those aches are what I think will hold him back, since its hard to throw it into a corner for the win when that same corner has put you in the hospital in the past.

1b) Jake Zemke - Jake was amazing in 2004, he just lacked a little bit of consistency. He’ll have to come on strong in the first few races, so Mladin doesn’t get his characteristic early season points lead, and that means he’ll have to start the season focused and in shape. Is he the easy going, laid back guy he appears on TV or does he have the focus and drive to turn off season testing/training into quick race wins? Can he beat Mladin both on the track and at the head games? I don’t know…but I think he’ll get a top three again for sure.

1c) Kurtis Roberts - As I mentioned in my Kurtis of the Dead blog posting I’m not really a fan of the youngest Roberts. In fact, I’m more happy to see Erion still in the game than I am to see Kurtis back. Still, its hard to deny his talent and without Kawasaki and Yamaha in Superbike, I’m glad to see another potential race winner on the grid. I still don’t think Kurtis has the focus (particularly if he’ll be spending the year wistfully dreaming of MotoGP) to pull off a championship against the Mladin machine.

• Third, the semi-factory Attack Kawasaki squad fighting with the big boys:

1a) Josh Hayes - Damn do I love rootin’ for the underdogs and Josh is front and center in that role. The Kawi looked like a beast last year and Josh was fantastic to watch. I want them to do well but I think it will be harder in 2005. Without a full factory race effort, I don’t think the Attack squad will be able to take it to the level necessary to fight for a championship, no matter how much Josh deserves it. Still, he should be a blast to watch.

1b) Ben Attard - Attack is also fielding a Superstock rider who is another in the seemingly never ending stream of Aussie riders moving to the US. He was inconsistent in 2004 and presented an attitude in interviews that gave me flash backs of Anthony “Wild Child” Gobert. Until I see otherwise, I’m assuming he’ll win some races but won’t have the attitude necessary to fight for a championship.

• Ducati, again claims to have a stronger focus with:

1a) Neil Hodgson - This is the biggest wildcard in the whole deck. An ex-MotoGP pilot and ex-World Superbike champion coming to the series, perhaps the first since Scott Russell’s return in ‘95. Who knows what tires they’ll run but I think the biggest problem will be learning the US tracks and dealing with our relatively poor safety standards compared to the tracks he’s raced the past few years. Even a great rider will probably pucker when he rides Mid-Ohio’s crap track surface or has to throw a bike into Road Atlanta’s Turn 12 just feet from a concrete wall. As much as I want Neil to push Mladin, I don’t think he’ll consistently be able to win.

1b) Eric Bostrom - Ducati can get a lot of PR out of a popular rider like Eric. Sadly, it doesn’t appear that Eric can get a lot out of a long wheel-base Ducati with vague front end feel. Even with them running Eric’s beloved Dunlops, I don’t think he’ll gain the confidence he needs from the Duc after all those years on the sweet handling ZX7. He better improve, if not win, before his stellar reputation as a rider and his status as a fan favorite fade.

• Michael Jordan has put together a Suzuki backed Superbike/Supersport team with:

1a) Jason Pridmore - Jason seemed to have hit his high water mark while racing for Yoshimura and hasn’t gotten much reward from his talent and hard work the past few years. However, he’s a great choice for the fledgling Jordan team. While I don’t think he’ll be able to topple the factory Yosh and Honda guys, he is a proven talent. What’s more, he has deep ties in the industry, is a super nice guys, knows how to play the PR/media game and will be a huge asset in terms of bringing teammate Montez Stewart up to speed. If the team can get good mechanics and a good crew chief, I believe these guys can give Attack Kawasaki fits for the title of top privateer.

1b) Steve Rapp - Back when Rapp ruled Willow Springs, he seemed to be the next big thing. Then his tours of duty on Suzuki and Ducati superbikes kind of fizzled. When he went back to Supersport/superstock, I thought it would give him a chance to get refocused but he has generally fizzled there too. He is leaving a proven team with an excellant crew to come to the new Jordan team and I think that will further complicate his riding. Sadly, I think he’ll go backwards, not forwards, in 2005.

1c) Montez Stewart - A lot of folks question whether Montez “deserves” his Jordan ride. Personally, I think its a stupid question. Montez is a talented club rider and has a friend with lots of money. Good for him that he has a chance to step up to the national level. Now its a question of whether he can dig deep, learn from those around him and elevate his game. Besides, its great for the sport to have some diversity and having a privateer team with an African-American owner and another as a rider is a definitely a move in the right direction. Hopefully, this will help bring new blood into the sport and help it appeal to a broader spectrum of people. If Montez can get into the top 15, it will be a successful year and will show he is still learning as a rider.

• Canada’s Diablo Suzuki has decided to come race south of the border this year with:

1a) Steve Crevier - Everyone that spectates at AMA races should be thrilled to have the Fuzz back in the game. No one can give a post-race performance like Crevier. His cool down lap stoppies are the stuff of legend and his personality adds a much needed spark to pit lane. Oh wait, I should be talking about racing, huh? Well, Crevier is good but I don’t think he’ll have what it takes to run at the top but his wild card races last year show he’s got the tail end of the factory guys covered. Just consider it a pity that SpeedTV doesn’t interview the eighth place finisher after the race.

1b) Francis Martin - I’ve seen Martin’s name consistently shown in the coverage of the Canadian Superbike series but it seems the most consistent thing about him is how much he is overshadowed by former AMA racers like Crevier, Picotte and Szoke. I think he’ll be racing with the privateers unless he has really learned a lot from those guys over the past couple of years…

There are some other factory teams but they appear to be staying away from Superbike again in 2005. They are:

• Yamaha, with a big lineup:

1a) Jamie Hacking - Ho hum. I can’t get excited about Jamie, even if he is a past 600SS champion. Too many crashes, too many close calls with other riders and too many excuses for all that stuff for me to be a fan. He’s always a front runner and probably will push the Superstock guys in 2005, since I’m guessing that is the class he really wants to win.

1b) Damon Buckmaster - In the same way that Hacking gets on my nerves, Bucky is one of my favorites. He has a no-nonsense attitude, always takes responsibility for crashes or losses and just gets on with the business of riding the tar out of a motorcycle. He’s started to crash a lot lately, which has resulted in two ruined seasons back-to-back because of injuries. I hope he can get things turned around in 2005. Like Hacking, I think he’ll shine the brightest in Superstock.

1c) Aaron Gobert - Aaron ran a great season in 2005 to take the Superstock championship. Unlike his more famous older brother, Aaron seems to be level headed and dedicated to being a better racer. He’s got loads of skill but I think it was his attitude that ultimately won him his Superstock crown. Win when you can, ride hard and take what you can get when you can’t. It also helps that he was pushed all season long and had to keep up’ing his game to stay ahead. Its a damned shame Yamaha isn’t running a factory Superbike squad, if only because this kid deserves to be learning from the best the AMA has racing.

1d) Jason Disalvo - Jason is another Hacking, only younger. His attitude, after multiple accusations of dangerous riding by folks like the Hayden brothers and Ben Spies, was that of a cocky kid who thinks the ends justify the means. I hope he grows out of that. He has the riding skills, now he just needs to work on his personality skills. He will probably have strong results in 2005 but I can’t get enthused enough about him to think he’ll earn any titles.

• Kawasaki is also back with:

1a) Tommy Hayden - Tommy was fantastic back in 1999, challenging for the 600SS title. Then Kawasaki dropped Muzzy and Tommy switched to Yamaha. It has basically taken him four years to get back on a Kawasaki and return to the dominance he should have displayed in 2000. His Supersport championship and strong Superstock performance should have him a favorite for both titles in 2005. For Tommy’s sake alone, Kawasaki should be ashamed of not racing Superbike.

1b) Roger Lee Hayden - Roger made the strides last year that many expected in 2003. He’s now a force to be reckoned with. Whats more, he joins Spies as the two brightest stars of the future for the AMA. If he can step up with a Supersport or Superstock championship in 2005, he’ll move to the “A” list of riders in the AMA. The only thing I see standing between him and one of those championships is his brother.

• Suzuki again has a field of factory supported teams including:

Team Hammer Suzuki:

1a) Vincent Haskovec - Vincent was fast as a privateer but has not been very consistent with the Valvoline Suzuki squad. He is now one of the few riders with 600cc Formula Extreme experience, which will hopefully help him improve in ‘05. Still, it would require a pretty big step up to go from top non-Honda in F-Extreme to front runner and I don’t think he’ll make that big a leap forward.

1b) Geoff May - Once again, John Ulrich has given a talented a privateer the chance to race when one of the factory teams should have hired him. Geoff was the hero of all privateers in ‘04, racing to consistent top ten finishes while maintaining this own bikes and drive to the races. That kind of dedication and those results should have earned him a factory ride but at least he’ll continue racing in ‘05. I predict he’ll give the Attack Kawasaki squad run and probably cherry pick spots off the factory guys if they have an off day.

There will probably be the usual Suzuki supported teams like Corona and Hooters but they haven’t announced their rider line-ups yet. The only privateer that I’ll comment on is:

1a) Larry Pegram - The Worm is trying to put together a Honda (best of luck there, Honda never provides support to privateers!) for 2005. He’s a past Superbike race winner and top dirt tracker, so he has talent but seems like he’s a whole lot less hungry now than he was in 1999 when he put the Ferrari Ducati on top of the box at Willow Springs. Until Larry can top the other privateers, he’ll just be another colorful addition in the paddock and not a serious contender for another shot on a factory bike.

[image from Dunlop website]