I’ve exchanged email with a few different people where the question has distilled down to “what happened?”. After Nicky’s stellar freshman season in MotoGP being on the factory Honda squad, teammate to World Champ Rossi and nabbing Rookie of the Year in 2003, big things were surely expected in 2004. With Rossi expected to struggle in his first season on the Yamaha, the kid from Kentucky was tagged as one of the potential champs for 2004. …but it didn’t happen. Worse yet, this was the second of two years on his contract, in an industry where second chances (for American riders) aren’t extended very often.

Nicky showed some great riding at times this year but it seemed like Rossi, Biaggi and Gibernau were usually a little faster when it counted. Certainly his crash caused injuries which spoiled the second half of his season but I think there are two other issues.

First, Nicky still hasn’t learned to raise his qualifying performance to the same level as the other front runners. Nicky clearly has the speed but can’t ramp up to it fast enough to meet the pace in the last minutes of qualifying. Where the other guys cut 1 or 2 seconds off their lap time in just a few laps on their gumballs, Nicky usually doesn’t. When you’re on the second or third row, in a field this talented, you’ve already put yourself out of contention for the win.

Second, I don’t think Nicky has enough experience dicing at the speeds the MotoGP bikes can achieve. Late braking someone into a corner at 100mph on a $100,000 production- based superbike isn’t the same as sliding sideways at 200mph on a three million dollar factory Grand Prix bike. Riders like Rossi and Biaggi can make bold passes in the first or second lap at top speed. Hayden doesn’t seem able to stoke the fire that quickly and, when starting a few rows down, that means its sometimes the mid-point of the race before he can give chase.

In 2005, I hope that Nicky can continue to improve. He’s gotta learn the qualifying routine and then, step up his game in the early laps.

All this criticism and arm-chair coaching aside, I’m in awe of what Nicky has already accomplished and I’m thrilled at the prospects of what he will do as he grows. I’m also thrilled that Honda has realized his potential and signed him for another two years.

[image from nickyhayden.com]