Silly season for the AMA isn’t really as silly as in season’s past, with one huge exception, because of the small number of factory teams in Superbike and the confusion of the different classes.

• First, Suzuki, the champion yet again in 2004:



1a) Mat Mladin - What, really, needs to be said about Mladin at this point. He’s made everyone in the superbike class, except Nicky Hayden, look like chumps for the past six years. He’s an animal and I figure its likely he’ll continue to win AMA championships until he retires. I’d gripe about MotoGP seats, riders who buy rides with sponsorship dollars and other things, except that its a sad tale that’s been told again and again. I predict Mladin will have another #1 at the end of this coming season.

1b) Aaron Yates - After being a big fan since his Suzuki Cup days, last year was the last straw. I will say Double A Ron better start the ‘05 season better than last year because he didn’t look like a championship rider after his Daytona fisty-cuffs. I think 2004 took a lot of the wind from his sails and I don’t think he’ll make a big enough jump back forward in 2005 to win the thing.

1c) Ben Spies - Whatever money Suzuki isn’t already paying to Mladin to keep him around, they better be giving to Spies. For that matter, the AMA should be paying him too. He’s got bucket loads of talent and a tremendous dedication to racing. I think he’s the best thing the AMA has on the horizon. I think he has everything needed to fight for a championship in 2005 and may be the biggest threat to Mladin.

• Second, Honda, with a returning lineup:

1a) Miguel Duhamel - At the beginning of 2004, I’d have forecast that Duhamel was being kept around by Honda for his marketability…then he shows me up by having one of his strongest years. I’m not sure he’ll be willing to push that extra little bit needed to race with the young bucks or to keep up with Mladin, though. Miguel has so many war wounds, his body probably aches when going around half the corners on the AMA circuit. Those aches are what I think will hold him back, since its hard to throw it into a corner for the win when that same corner has put you in the hospital in the past.

1b) Jake Zemke - Jake was amazing in 2004, he just lacked a little bit of consistency. He’ll have to come on strong in the first few races, so Mladin doesn’t get his characteristic early season points lead, and that means he’ll have to start the season focused and in shape. Is he the easy going, laid back guy he appears on TV or does he have the focus and drive to turn off season testing/training into quick race wins? Can he beat Mladin both on the track and at the head games? I don’t know…but I think he’ll get a top three again for sure.

1c) Kurtis Roberts - As I mentioned in my Kurtis of the Dead blog posting I’m not really a fan of the youngest Roberts. In fact, I’m more happy to see Erion still in the game than I am to see Kurtis back. Still, its hard to deny his talent and without Kawasaki and Yamaha in Superbike, I’m glad to see another potential race winner on the grid. I still don’t think Kurtis has the focus (particularly if he’ll be spending the year wistfully dreaming of MotoGP) to pull off a championship against the Mladin machine.

• Third, the semi-factory Attack Kawasaki squad fighting with the big boys:

1a) Josh Hayes - Damn do I love rootin’ for the underdogs and Josh is front and center in that role. The Kawi looked like a beast last year and Josh was fantastic to watch. I want them to do well but I think it will be harder in 2005. Without a full factory race effort, I don’t think the Attack squad will be able to take it to the level necessary to fight for a championship, no matter how much Josh deserves it. Still, he should be a blast to watch.

1b) Ben Attard - Attack is also fielding a Superstock rider who is another in the seemingly never ending stream of Aussie riders moving to the US. He was inconsistent in 2004 and presented an attitude in interviews that gave me flash backs of Anthony “Wild Child” Gobert. Until I see otherwise, I’m assuming he’ll win some races but won’t have the attitude necessary to fight for a championship.

• Ducati, again claims to have a stronger focus with:

1a) Neil Hodgson - This is the biggest wildcard in the whole deck. An ex-MotoGP pilot and ex-World Superbike champion coming to the series, perhaps the first since Scott Russell’s return in ‘95. Who knows what tires they’ll run but I think the biggest problem will be learning the US tracks and dealing with our relatively poor safety standards compared to the tracks he’s raced the past few years. Even a great rider will probably pucker when he rides Mid-Ohio’s crap track surface or has to throw a bike into Road Atlanta’s Turn 12 just feet from a concrete wall. As much as I want Neil to push Mladin, I don’t think he’ll consistently be able to win.

1b) Eric Bostrom - Ducati can get a lot of PR out of a popular rider like Eric. Sadly, it doesn’t appear that Eric can get a lot out of a long wheel-base Ducati with vague front end feel. Even with them running Eric’s beloved Dunlops, I don’t think he’ll gain the confidence he needs from the Duc after all those years on the sweet handling ZX7. He better improve, if not win, before his stellar reputation as a rider and his status as a fan favorite fade.

• Michael Jordan has put together a Suzuki backed Superbike/Supersport team with:

1a) Jason Pridmore - Jason seemed to have hit his high water mark while racing for Yoshimura and hasn’t gotten much reward from his talent and hard work the past few years. However, he’s a great choice for the fledgling Jordan team. While I don’t think he’ll be able to topple the factory Yosh and Honda guys, he is a proven talent. What’s more, he has deep ties in the industry, is a super nice guys, knows how to play the PR/media game and will be a huge asset in terms of bringing teammate Montez Stewart up to speed. If the team can get good mechanics and a good crew chief, I believe these guys can give Attack Kawasaki fits for the title of top privateer.

1b) Steve Rapp - Back when Rapp ruled Willow Springs, he seemed to be the next big thing. Then his tours of duty on Suzuki and Ducati superbikes kind of fizzled. When he went back to Supersport/superstock, I thought it would give him a chance to get refocused but he has generally fizzled there too. He is leaving a proven team with an excellant crew to come to the new Jordan team and I think that will further complicate his riding. Sadly, I think he’ll go backwards, not forwards, in 2005.

1c) Montez Stewart - A lot of folks question whether Montez “deserves” his Jordan ride. Personally, I think its a stupid question. Montez is a talented club rider and has a friend with lots of money. Good for him that he has a chance to step up to the national level. Now its a question of whether he can dig deep, learn from those around him and elevate his game. Besides, its great for the sport to have some diversity and having a privateer team with an African-American owner and another as a rider is a definitely a move in the right direction. Hopefully, this will help bring new blood into the sport and help it appeal to a broader spectrum of people. If Montez can get into the top 15, it will be a successful year and will show he is still learning as a rider.

• Canada’s Diablo Suzuki has decided to come race south of the border this year with:

1a) Steve Crevier - Everyone that spectates at AMA races should be thrilled to have the Fuzz back in the game. No one can give a post-race performance like Crevier. His cool down lap stoppies are the stuff of legend and his personality adds a much needed spark to pit lane. Oh wait, I should be talking about racing, huh? Well, Crevier is good but I don’t think he’ll have what it takes to run at the top but his wild card races last year show he’s got the tail end of the factory guys covered. Just consider it a pity that SpeedTV doesn’t interview the eighth place finisher after the race.

1b) Francis Martin - I’ve seen Martin’s name consistently shown in the coverage of the Canadian Superbike series but it seems the most consistent thing about him is how much he is overshadowed by former AMA racers like Crevier, Picotte and Szoke. I think he’ll be racing with the privateers unless he has really learned a lot from those guys over the past couple of years…

There are some other factory teams but they appear to be staying away from Superbike again in 2005. They are:

• Yamaha, with a big lineup:

1a) Jamie Hacking - Ho hum. I can’t get excited about Jamie, even if he is a past 600SS champion. Too many crashes, too many close calls with other riders and too many excuses for all that stuff for me to be a fan. He’s always a front runner and probably will push the Superstock guys in 2005, since I’m guessing that is the class he really wants to win.

1b) Damon Buckmaster - In the same way that Hacking gets on my nerves, Bucky is one of my favorites. He has a no-nonsense attitude, always takes responsibility for crashes or losses and just gets on with the business of riding the tar out of a motorcycle. He’s started to crash a lot lately, which has resulted in two ruined seasons back-to-back because of injuries. I hope he can get things turned around in 2005. Like Hacking, I think he’ll shine the brightest in Superstock.

1c) Aaron Gobert - Aaron ran a great season in 2005 to take the Superstock championship. Unlike his more famous older brother, Aaron seems to be level headed and dedicated to being a better racer. He’s got loads of skill but I think it was his attitude that ultimately won him his Superstock crown. Win when you can, ride hard and take what you can get when you can’t. It also helps that he was pushed all season long and had to keep up’ing his game to stay ahead. Its a damned shame Yamaha isn’t running a factory Superbike squad, if only because this kid deserves to be learning from the best the AMA has racing.

1d) Jason Disalvo - Jason is another Hacking, only younger. His attitude, after multiple accusations of dangerous riding by folks like the Hayden brothers and Ben Spies, was that of a cocky kid who thinks the ends justify the means. I hope he grows out of that. He has the riding skills, now he just needs to work on his personality skills. He will probably have strong results in 2005 but I can’t get enthused enough about him to think he’ll earn any titles.

• Kawasaki is also back with:

1a) Tommy Hayden - Tommy was fantastic back in 1999, challenging for the 600SS title. Then Kawasaki dropped Muzzy and Tommy switched to Yamaha. It has basically taken him four years to get back on a Kawasaki and return to the dominance he should have displayed in 2000. His Supersport championship and strong Superstock performance should have him a favorite for both titles in 2005. For Tommy’s sake alone, Kawasaki should be ashamed of not racing Superbike.

1b) Roger Lee Hayden - Roger made the strides last year that many expected in 2003. He’s now a force to be reckoned with. Whats more, he joins Spies as the two brightest stars of the future for the AMA. If he can step up with a Supersport or Superstock championship in 2005, he’ll move to the “A” list of riders in the AMA. The only thing I see standing between him and one of those championships is his brother.

• Suzuki again has a field of factory supported teams including:

Team Hammer Suzuki:

1a) Vincent Haskovec - Vincent was fast as a privateer but has not been very consistent with the Valvoline Suzuki squad. He is now one of the few riders with 600cc Formula Extreme experience, which will hopefully help him improve in ‘05. Still, it would require a pretty big step up to go from top non-Honda in F-Extreme to front runner and I don’t think he’ll make that big a leap forward.

1b) Geoff May - Once again, John Ulrich has given a talented a privateer the chance to race when one of the factory teams should have hired him. Geoff was the hero of all privateers in ‘04, racing to consistent top ten finishes while maintaining this own bikes and drive to the races. That kind of dedication and those results should have earned him a factory ride but at least he’ll continue racing in ‘05. I predict he’ll give the Attack Kawasaki squad run and probably cherry pick spots off the factory guys if they have an off day.

There will probably be the usual Suzuki supported teams like Corona and Hooters but they haven’t announced their rider line-ups yet. The only privateer that I’ll comment on is:

1a) Larry Pegram - The Worm is trying to put together a Honda (best of luck there, Honda never provides support to privateers!) for 2005. He’s a past Superbike race winner and top dirt tracker, so he has talent but seems like he’s a whole lot less hungry now than he was in 1999 when he put the Ferrari Ducati on top of the box at Willow Springs. Until Larry can top the other privateers, he’ll just be another colorful addition in the paddock and not a serious contender for another shot on a factory bike.

[image from Dunlop website]

First off, congrats to Mighty Mat for his 5th AMA Superbike title. In fact, let me repeat that in case the folks that say he’s not a good rider missed it…his 5th AMA Superbike title. The guy has a work ethic that makes the rest of the field look like its a hobby for them, he’s built a team that rivals anything at the world level and he has proved that he is a fantastic development rider. He’s got everyone else covered and I’m forecasting he’ll earn championship #6 in 2005.

So having such a phenomenal rider in the series is cause for all hearts and flowers, right? No cause for a fan of the series to complain, right? Wrong.

First, I hate dominance. Whether its Lawson, Doohan, Duhamel, Fogarty, Rossi or Mladin. I want the outcome of races to be fought till the finish line and championships to be a question mark until the final points are tallied. Mat hasn’t always had a cake walk but its always obvious in on the first day of practice that Mat is the one to beat. Second, I think Mat has overshadowed his own brilliance as a rider by his constant criticism of everything in and around racing.

So what will Mladin’s legacy be? Ex-Grand Prix rider? King of AMA Superbike? Big fish in a small pond? Whiner extraordinaire? Lets break ‘em down:

1. Ex-GP rider - Can anyone that didn’t astound as a Grand Prix pilot during the ascension of Doohan really be considered a failure? The list of riders that had the misfortune of racing against Rainey/Schwantz and Doohan is long and glorious: Magee, Shobert, Chandler, Kocinski, Cadalora, Barros, Criville, etc. Mat’s finishes aboard the Cagiva 500 GP bike showed he was a good rider and the equal of his more experienced teammate Chandler. Besides, results aside, having your name on the above list of riders isn’t exactly something to be ashamed of! Its a pity Mladin has never had a second crack but I don’t think he’ll be remembered for his Grand Prix past or potential.
2. King of AMA Superbike - If Russell can be called “Mr. Daytona”, surely Mladin should be called “Mr. AMA”. He has become the alpha dog of the series and all but dry humps his opponents come race day. There is no question that Mat will forever go down as the first person to own the series. Plenty of folks had spectacular seasons but Mladin is the first have them back to back (only interrupted as Nicky Hayden blew through on his way to MotoGP). But outside of the US and parts of Australia its unclear how many people know just how much Mat has dominated in the US.
3. Big fish in a small pond - This is somewhere in between #1 and #2 and could well be how Mat is remembered, through no fault of his own. The world stage, whether it be GP or World Superbike, is where the best come to battle the best. In WSB the money is no good, the rules usually favor one brand and the organizers seem disorganized but it is where national champs can face off across a whole series and not just when the other guys visit your home track. In GP, the money and pressure are astounding but to quote Sinatra “If you can make it there you can make it anywhere”. If you wanna be considered the best you have to bet the rest. Since Suzuki never gave Mladin that second shot at GP fame, he may well be best remembered for what he didn’t accomplish rather than what he did.
4. Whiner extraordinaire - In 2004 alone, Mladin lashed out at the tires, the tracks, the other riders, the AMA officials, the TV commentators, the other bikes, the AMA class structure, the post-race award ceremony and even Suzuki for not putting him on the GP bike. Undoubtedly, there is truth in all of this, particularly the track safety issues but he’s managed to complain about so many different things that its hard to take him seriously about any of them. Do I expect Mat to become another meely-mouthed corporate spokesperson? Definitely not. Do I think he should forsake his principles about track safety? Hell no. In fact, I think he should focus all his energies on the important things and can his wise cracks about the other riders, the AMA officials or the other bikes. He could be remembered for making a positive change in the AMA series (as well as ruling it with an iron fist) or he may be remembered more for what he said rather than did.

Ultimately, Mat probably doesn’t care. He’ll laugh all the way to the bank and may not worry about whether he’s remembered in the US or elsewhere…

[image from www.superbikeplanet.com

Fire one up, dude!

At the beginning of last year, things probably seemed pretty good for Michelin. They still had a virtual lock on MotoGP and were part of a full factory effort by Ducati to win the AMA Superbike series after a ten year shutout. I’m sure they were still hurting from World Superbike’s decision to become a Pirelli only series but at least that affected all the tire manufacturers equally. By March, they had taken pole at Daytona, Rossi had put the hammer down in South Africa and the lap times being turned by World Superbike riders were almost two seconds off those set by Michelin riders the previous year. 2004 was going to be a sweet year.

Now fast forward 10 months. With last month’s press release that the factory Ducati MotoGP team would run Bridgestones , this week’s announcement that the Austin Ducati AMA team would run Dunlops and the requirement that the Fila SBK squad use Pirellis, the long-standing image of Ducati’s rolling on Michelin tires has been obliterated.

In fact, with Aprilia seemingly out of MotoGP and Ducatis defection Michelin has lost four Grand Prix riders while only gaining Tamada whose Honda will apparently use the French tires. Another black eye for Michelin was the clear superiority of the Bridgestone qualifying tires in MotoGP as Tamada, Roberts, Hopkins and Nakano all had impressive qualifying times during the previous season. It was even rumored that the Bridgestone rain tires were better but its much harder to quantify that since rider skill, race strategy and bike setup are so much more difficult to separate out during a wet race. (Bridgestone’s highest achievement though was their win at Motegi where a Japanese rider Makoto Tamada on a Japanese Honda motorcycle won the race using the Japanese Bridgestone tires.)

In the AMA, the Michelin tires were a clearly less developed tire compared to the Dunlops which have ruled American road race tracks for almost a decade. It is likely that some of the factory supported teams, like Valvoline Suzuki, will continue to run Michelins in 2005 but none of the factory teams will be providing the much needed technical feedback so the tire R&D can catch up to Dunlop.

Even though the Pirellis were slower at every World Superbike round, the politics of that series mean that they are unlikely to return to the former rules allowing factory teams to run their own tires. Hopefully, with so many riders helping with development, the Pirellis will become a better tire so all those lap records set on Michelin tires will eventually fall as well. On the other hand, if the Pirellis don’t improve their grip then the vicious highsides caused by lots of power and hard tires will result in so many rider injuries that another brand may be brought in to replace them in the name of safety…

Is Michelin going up in smoke? Doubtful but it does appear they’ll have to work that much harder to regain some of the ground they’ve lost for 2005.

[image from www.superbikeplanet.com]

Like an extra in a late night b-movie zombie flick, it appears that Kurtis has again risen from the afterlife to return and again haunt the US roadracing series. Last year, it appeared the Kurtis had thankfully…uh, I mean fortunately…been given an opportunity to move on to GP. I thought he had left US waters, if not for the remainder of his career, at least long enough for us to get a break from his whining.

Kurtis is a talented racer, no doubt. He has garnered three AMA championships in hard fought classes (Formula Xtreme in ‘99 and a double with Formula Xtreme and 600SS in ‘00). He also won two Superbike races in ‘03 against Mat Mladin, something few accomplished that year. Kurtis was successful enough in the AMA series to justify him having a shot at something on the world stage and I don’t begrudge him a MotoGP ride. What’s more, in his ‘03 season he only destroyed about half the motorcycle parts of previous seasons, so he was starting to ride with more smarts which is something any crew chief for a MotoGP team will appreciate.

So for 2004, Kurtis parked his helmet in the Roberts/Proton garage and his longevity in Grand Prix seemed pretty certain. He has a historical name which is a PR gold mine, he was managed by top class International Racers, Inc., was slated to help develop his father’s GP bike (an experience which did wonders for the skills of his older brother Kenny Roberts, Jr), was getting the all important knowledge of the GP circuits and had an opportunity to adapt to the travelling life of the MotoGP series. While no one expected him to fight for the title, he was gaining experience that would probably see him staying in MotoGP for awhile.

Unfortunately, his MotoGP debut didn’t go as well as originally planned.

So what is my beef with Kurtis, you might ask? Well, as I mentioned above, I think he’s a multi-time national champion in whining. Whether he’s complaining about the other riders or making excuses or moping about the pits he always seems to come across as a pouty little kid. While piling up trashed bodywork and bent sub-frames, it seemed like it was always the track, some other racer, the wind, or even his mechanics giving him a bad set-up that was to blame. I prefer to see a little more humility and a lot more personal responsibility. Second, I think he’s relied on his huge reserves of natural talent to win races and thus hasn’t put in the hard work that would raise him game to the level necessary to be a world champion. He’s not another playboy like Gobert but he’s not another freak like Mladin either.

Now things have fallen apart for Kurtis in ‘05. He’s left International Racers, he isn’t re-signed with KR/Proton and there have been rumors flying that he’ll be back in AMA Superbike next year on either a Honda or a Yamaha. Maybe this set back will be a little wake-up call. Maybe he’ll feel a little less entitled and a little more thankful to be racing motorcycles for a living. Then maybe he’ll have the focus to fight for an AMA Superbike championship and then go back to MotoGP with the dedication necessary to get a top ride and fight for that championship as well.

[image source unknown]